Dynamical Models of AI Governability (blog post + basin explorer)#154

Draft

davidoj wants to merge 78 commits into

dynamical_models

Commits on Jun 10, 2026

Move basin-explorer app into repo

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Build basin-explorer statically into static/basin-explorer

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Add trajectory horizon (sigma max) slider, default 15, range 5-60

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Add URL-encoded shareable state (params, horizon, view, time axis)

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Fix basin badge readout: report l*O*(0) vs k_uu-1 instead of alpha

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Overlay analytic basin-existence boundary on outcome map

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Rebuild basin-explorer static assets with Phase A features

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App: add suppression destruction fraction delta and named-calibration presets

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Rebuild basin-explorer static assets with delta + presets

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Add dynamical models of AI governability post (draft baseline)

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Add suppression destruction fraction delta to model equations and appendix

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Correct the l calibration: Petri half-lives identify l*O, not l

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Add named calibrations (Broad / Strict) to the estimation section

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Replace central-estimate verdict with per-calibration default-path verdicts

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Add 'Are we on the good path?' section, replacing the raw notes block

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Restructure post to agreed section order

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Mechanical fixes: typos, citations, numbering, anchors, front matter

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Regenerate AI 2027 figures at the corrected central calibration

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Fix math rendering: goldmark passthrough for display math

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Fix verifier-found discrepancies in the governability post

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Add full default-path section with figures

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Retire stale pre-delta helper scripts in basin-explorer

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Production-gate suppression in the basin explorer

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Rebuild basin-explorer static assets (production-gated model)

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Editorial trims from David's review pass

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Production-gate suppression throughout the governability post

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Add human-era calibration identities and the two-readings ambiguity

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Reframe headline observable as a dichotomy; robustness tags; two-pool scope

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Good-path: O-hump as calibration diagnostic, series-bound predictions

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Regenerate all four figures under the production-gated model

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Notation and attribution pass after the gating edits

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Bounded leak gate (l_k) in the basin explorer; retract eradication

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Rebuild basin-explorer static assets for the bounded-gate (v3) app

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Bounded leak gate in the post model; retract eradication regime

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Re-centre l to 0.2 with instrument theory; re-number all verdicts

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Restructure fire alarm around the new central; re-derive AI 2027

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Regenerate all four figures under the bounded-gate (v3) model

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Qualify l_k-dependent delta-takeover thresholds; tighten Strict delta-range wording

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Verify cross-card audit genre against the primary system cards

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Worked examples for three sticking-point explanations

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Fix v3 verifier-found discrepancies

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Commits on Jun 11, 2026

Commits on Jun 12, 2026

Commits on Jun 18, 2026

Commits on Jun 22, 2026

placeholder before I delete basin discussion
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Commits on Jun 23, 2026

update central trajectory explanation
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Commits on Jun 25, 2026

Commits on Jun 30, 2026

text updates
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