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010be11
Move basin-explorer app into repo
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
e2386be
Build basin-explorer statically into static/basin-explorer
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
b16434c
Add trajectory horizon (sigma max) slider, default 15, range 5-60
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
a49a59f
Add URL-encoded shareable state (params, horizon, view, time axis)
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
e8bec30
Fix basin badge readout: report l*O*(0) vs k_uu-1 instead of alpha
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
42bbbeb
Overlay analytic basin-existence boundary on outcome map
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
66bb922
Rebuild basin-explorer static assets with Phase A features
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
12c1be5
App: add suppression destruction fraction delta and named-calibration…
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
28f169c
Rebuild basin-explorer static assets with delta + presets
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
2cebc9d
Add dynamical models of AI governability post (draft baseline)
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
46bbfd9
Add suppression destruction fraction delta to model equations and app…
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
f6cdcdb
Correct the l calibration: Petri half-lives identify l*O, not l
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
c178e22
Add named calibrations (Broad / Strict) to the estimation section
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
69ecce8
Replace central-estimate verdict with per-calibration default-path ve…
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
dbc9465
Add 'Are we on the good path?' section, replacing the raw notes block
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
d4f014f
Restructure post to agreed section order
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
7e4bfe8
Mechanical fixes: typos, citations, numbering, anchors, front matter
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
4927eb9
Regenerate AI 2027 figures at the corrected central calibration
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
2373dff
Fix math rendering: goldmark passthrough for display math
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
4f813e1
Fix verifier-found discrepancies in the governability post
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
34a328d
Add full default-path section with figures
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
9f3f7ee
Retire stale pre-delta helper scripts in basin-explorer
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
b5d1952
Production-gate suppression in the basin explorer
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
998d955
Rebuild basin-explorer static assets (production-gated model)
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
4da84f9
Editorial trims from David's review pass
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
c47766d
Production-gate suppression throughout the governability post
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
584d108
Add human-era calibration identities and the two-readings ambiguity
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
0bb312c
Reframe headline observable as a dichotomy; robustness tags; two-pool…
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
86f7a17
Good-path: O-hump as calibration diagnostic, series-bound predictions
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
088911c
Regenerate all four figures under the production-gated model
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
15191fa
Notation and attribution pass after the gating edits
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
d833ac6
Bounded leak gate (l_k) in the basin explorer; retract eradication
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
20af7fd
Rebuild basin-explorer static assets for the bounded-gate (v3) app
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
8299367
Bounded leak gate in the post model; retract eradication regime
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
227dc75
Re-centre l to 0.2 with instrument theory; re-number all verdicts
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
26aaa90
Restructure fire alarm around the new central; re-derive AI 2027
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
34aa15c
Regenerate all four figures under the bounded-gate (v3) model
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
fdb0427
Qualify l_k-dependent delta-takeover thresholds; tighten Strict delta…
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
b557b94
Verify cross-card audit genre against the primary system cards
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
b8d6dfa
Worked examples for three sticking-point explanations
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
209144a
Fix v3 verifier-found discrepancies
davidoj Jun 10, 2026
29ace12
Fix classList bug in mathjax partial that destroyed post-content styling
davidoj Jun 11, 2026
f3c3337
Remove polyfill.io script from mathjax partial
davidoj Jun 11, 2026
f9e128e
Rename app to 'cooperativeness basin explorer'; rebuild static
davidoj Jun 11, 2026
6539bf1
Editorial pass from David's live read-through
davidoj Jun 11, 2026
2f42169
Bump pinned Hugo to 0.127.0 (production + deploy previews)
davidoj Jun 11, 2026
395f6fb
Add 'The results in brief' executive summary after the introduction
davidoj Jun 11, 2026
6fa5912
Exec summary claim 3: lagged-audit sentence + accuracy wording (David)
davidoj Jun 11, 2026
b5b11de
minor updates to executive summary
davidoj Jun 11, 2026
b87373a
App engine v4: growth-pegged passive opacity (e' = c0 + active/F - e)
davidoj Jun 11, 2026
90d4c2e
Rebuild basin-explorer static bundle for the v4 growth-peg engine
davidoj Jun 11, 2026
fd99146
Growth-pegged passive opacity: model equations, derivations, conventions
davidoj Jun 11, 2026
42cb570
Re-number trajectories and verdicts for the growth-pegged model
davidoj Jun 11, 2026
a847e75
Regenerate all four post figures under the growth-pegged model
davidoj Jun 11, 2026
821c291
Observability-section rewrites for the growth-pegged model
davidoj Jun 11, 2026
b340c12
Spec-independent lk explanations: gate-reserve frame, entanglement, l…
davidoj Jun 11, 2026
40de830
Replace AI usage note with David's requested rewrite, updated for v4
davidoj Jun 11, 2026
93c109b
Read-through fixes after pass 2
davidoj Jun 11, 2026
bd6bf55
Apply v4 verifier fix-list and integration items
davidoj Jun 11, 2026
37bbb71
Add misuse counting, k_uu qualifications, and Strict independence rat…
davidoj Jun 12, 2026
bda99a2
Replace independence framing with elicited-vs-natural correlation arg…
davidoj Jun 12, 2026
c055b18
Harmonize exec summary and body around rise prediction and its defeaters
davidoj Jun 12, 2026
6c685e7
Correct quiet-signal reading to three-checks-then-concern valence
davidoj Jun 12, 2026
bdeada8
Trim exec claim 3 to the bend prediction; move detail to path section
davidoj Jun 12, 2026
6c72d1c
Restructure confidently-good as state-space definition plus measurements
davidoj Jun 12, 2026
5f836a7
Define confidently-good as wiggle-proof and verify Strict fails it
davidoj Jun 12, 2026
5ce7cfb
Cut confidently-good to the observability point
davidoj Jun 12, 2026
a620705
Add indicative long-run observability numbers to confidently-good
davidoj Jun 12, 2026
83da9ac
Add indicative long-run observability numbers to confidently-good
davidoj Jun 12, 2026
457797a
Add indicative catch-rate trajectories to the near-term O paragraph
davidoj Jun 12, 2026
1206403
Lead exec summary with the loss-of-control result
davidoj Jun 12, 2026
3c44b6c
intro updates
davidoj Jun 18, 2026
22cd4be
introducing turnover rate
davidoj Jun 18, 2026
f0e2e05
placeholder before I delete basin discussion
davidoj Jun 22, 2026
1ae1755
update central trajectory explanation
davidoj Jun 23, 2026
b58eff8
AI-2027 section rework: smooth-vs-jump figure, analytic recovery, mat…
davidoj Jun 25, 2026
505e761
blog post updates
davidoj Jun 25, 2026
9fd3204
text updates
davidoj Jun 30, 2026
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4 changes: 3 additions & 1 deletion .gitignore
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resources*
.hugo_build.lock

/public-blog/
/public-blog/
/_scratch/
CLAUDE.md
3 changes: 3 additions & 0 deletions basin-explorer/.gitignore
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node_modules/
dist/
.DS_Store
33 changes: 33 additions & 0 deletions basin-explorer/README.md
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# basin-explorer

Interactive explorer for the dynamical model in
`content-blog/dynamical-models-of-ai-governability.md`. Built with Vite +
React; the deployed static build lives at `static/basin-explorer/` and is
served at `/basin-explorer/`.

```
npm install
npm run dev # local dev server
npm run build # builds straight to ../static/basin-explorer/ (commit the assets)
```

**The canonical math engine is `src/BasinExplorer.jsx`** — the **v5** model: a
two-stage detect-and-fix monitoring stock (documented `b` → fixed `s` at fix
rate `ρ`), a single `O_fix` suppression gate on all of `G_u = L_k + k_uu·q_u`,
growth-pegged passive opacity, and a turnover rate `γ` on the workforce share.
It holds the in-app ODE integrator, calibration (the `O*` dial pin), and the
analytic basin boundary. The blog post's equations and this app are kept in
sync; the post's live figures are generated by the v5 scripts in
`_scratch/review/verify-v5/` (e.g. `default_path_v5.py` for the default path,
`verify_v5.py` for the cross-checked landmark numbers).

`figures_ai2027.py` is a **SUPERSEDED v4** (`ℓ`/`ℓ_k` bounded-gate) port; its
outputs are no longer referenced by the post. Do not regenerate post figures
from it — port from `src/BasinExplorer.jsx` or reuse the v5 core in
`_scratch/review/verify-v5/`.

Note: a set of pre-δ helper scripts (`model.mjs`, `analytic.mjs`,
`scenarios.mjs`, `transients.mjs`, `explore_ai2027.mjs`) was removed in
June 2026 — they predated the destruction-fraction (δ) extension and asserted
results that are false for δ < 1 (e.g. a regime boundary independent of the fix
rate).
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